The Balance of Power

The Year Ahead 2023

Essential insights into the big themes fuelling the outlook

As we look ahead to 2023, energy prices appear to hold most sway over the economy and markets.

Lower energy prices could provide a path for a global economic soft landing by insulating consumers and businesses from the most detrimental of cost increases; it could dissuade inflation-targeting central banks from keeping interest rates prohibitively high for longer. Sustained higher energy prices, on the other hand, would result in ongoing stagflationary risks to the global economy and tighter monetary policy for longer, sapping consumption and business investment – including into the energy sector itself. 

That’s precisely why energy is the focus of the Year Ahead 2023. In this series of articles and podcasts below, we explore the impact of energy markets across four major themes that we believe will fundamentally drive the 2023 outlook across regions, sectors, and markets.

Running on empty: what’s in store for energy markets in 2023

Energy prices have rocketed in 2022, mainly due to the war in Ukraine. But with the global economy slowing down, can we expect similar rises in the year ahead? 

Restarting the green energy transition in 2023: the nuclear option

How can countries balance the short-term energy crunch with their long-term emissions reduction goals? We think nuclear energy is essential for the green energy transition – and will become a bigger part of the conversation in the year ahead.

Moving beyond gas-fired inflation: prices & monetary policy in 2023

An untameable virus has given way to untameable inflation, but how will policymakers manage to balance prices and economic growth in the year ahead?

Fuelling the fire: the biggest geopolitical risks to look out for in 2023

Geopolitics looks set to be a big driver for markets and the economic outlook in the year ahead. Our specialists share their views on the likeliest sources of geopolitical risk in 2023.

This material is published by NatWest Group plc (“NatWest Group”), for information purposes only and should not be regarded as providing any specific advice. Recipients should make their own independent evaluation of this information and no action should be taken, solely relying on it. This material should not be reproduced or disclosed without our consent. It is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which this would be prohibited. Whilst this information is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by NatWest Group and NatWest Group makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) of any kind, as regards the accuracy or completeness of this information, nor does it accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising in any way from any use made of or reliance placed on, this information. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of NatWest Group, as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Copyright © NatWest Group. All rights reserved.

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