• Renewed increases in output and new orders drive fastest business activity growth in 15 months yet inflationary pressures remain
• Sebastian Burnside, Chief Economist for Ulster Bank, said that the data suggested a “positive pipeline of new work” which could lead to “job creation” if it continues.
• Mark Crimmins, Ulster Bank Managing Director Corporate, Commercial and Business Banking, said Northern Ireland businesses entered 2026 “from a position of growth and optimism.”

he headline Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s private sector – moved back above the 50.0 no-change mark for the first time in eight months in January, posting 53.0, up from 47.9 in December. This expansion was the fastest since October 2024. 

Respondents indicated that the signing of new contracts had been key to the rise in output. Activity increased in three of the four monitored sectors, the exception being construction where output was unchanged. 
 

Sebastian Burnside, Chief Economist for Ulster Bank, commented:

“Northern Ireland's private sector started 2026 on the front foot, not only seeing renewed increases in output and new orders, but posting the sharpest expansions since October 2024 in both cases.

“Business confidence also strengthened amid suggestions of a positive pipeline of new work. Subsequently, there were signs of stabilisation in employment, and we'll hopefully see job creation in the months ahead should output requirements continue to rise.

“Worries about inflation remain, however, with rates of increase in input costs and output prices intensifying further in January. In fact, selling price inflation was the fastest in more than three years. If this continues, firms may face challenges sustaining the growth seen at the start of the year.”
 

Mark Crimmins, Ulster Bank Managing Director Corporate, Commercial and Business Banking, said: 

“Business activity rebounded in January to its fastest level in 15 months following a difficult end to 2025, with confidence also improving, driven by new customers and contracts. 

“Our Ulster Bank Growth Tracker suggests that Northern Ireland’s business community are entering 2026 from a position of growth and optimism.

“The challenge will be maintaining and increasing this momentum as the year progresses in the face of continuing inflationary pressures.”
 

Please see the regional report in full:

Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Growth Tracker (PDF, 818KB)