- Marked reduction in business confidence
- Fastest rise in selling prices since December 2022
The latest Ulster Bank Regional Growth Tracker signalled further challenges for Northern Ireland companies during April. Business activity decreased on the back of a fall in new orders, while sentiment dropped sharply. Meanwhile, input costs increased rapidly again and output price inflation hit a 28-month high.
The headline Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s private sector – posted 47.0 in April, up from 45.3 in March.
The latest reading signalled a solid monthly fall in business activity, albeit one that was the least pronounced in 2025 so far. Central to the latest reduction in output were falling new orders and uncertainty among customers.
The overall fall in activity was recorded in spite of a further marked increase in manufacturing production, with growth hitting a seven-month high. Retail posted the sharpest reduction of the four monitored sectors.
Sebastian Burnside, Chief Economist for Ulster Bank, commented: “The tracker this month reflects the challenges that economic uncertainty can create for UK businesses of all scales. Firms across Northern Ireland reported a challenging start to the second quarter, with demand for goods and services falling amid a backdrop of economic uncertainty and rising prices. Across the UK, the South West was alone in recording growth in business activity.
"It's encouraging that firms are still looking to the future with some optimism, although growth expectations are lower than they have typically been in the past. We cannot ignore the backdrop during which this survey was carried out but regardless, as we’ve seen in the past and as the South West and Scotland illustrate, UK business is resilient and can always offer reasons for optimism throughout.”
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Growth Tracker (PDF, 2.4MB)
