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Key findings

 

  • Solid increase in new business 
  • Staffing levels in Northern Ireland rise for 25th consecutive month in January 
  • January storms compromise business lead times 
  • Business Activity softens further

 

Manufacturing and services continued to drive economic growth and job creation in Northern Ireland, according to the latest Ulster Bank Regional Growth Tracker for January. The latest survey reported a further downturn in business growth as the country’s construction and retail sectors aligned with the downturn affecting other regions of the UK. However, employment growth, although modest, has continued into January, meaning staffing levels have increased for the 25th consecutive month. The headline Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s private sector – remained below the 50.0 no-change mark in January, falling to 45.0 from 47.7 in December. The reading signalled a marked monthly decline in business activity, and one that was the steepest since December 2022. There was a marked sector divergence in January. The overall reduction in activity was driven by rapid falls in the construction and retail categories. On the other hand, activity continued to rise in manufacturing and services

Sebastian Burnside, Chief Economist for Ulster Bank, said:

“Northern Ireland’s labour market is the most resilient of any part of the UK at the start of 2025. That’s building on the momentum of last year, when job growth was twice the pace of the next fastest region. But employers are starting the year in a more cautious setting. Private sector firms reported rapidly rising cost pressures and prices. “Combined with rising wage costs and upcoming increases to national insurance contributions, this has cooled demand and the flow of new work. Many will be hoping that the Bank of England’s interest rate cut last week means that policy is now less restrictive, with further loosening

 

Please see the regional report in full:

Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Growth Tracker (PDF, 873KB)

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