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Economics

Ulster Bank Regional Growth Tracker report for September 2025

Construction sector drives business activity for Northern Ireland in September.

  • Construction activity increases as other sectors soften as Q3 draws to a close 
  • Marginal increase in staffing levels – only one of two monitored regions to do so 
  • Optimism remains strong for remainder of the year

 

The headline Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s private sector – posted 44.9 in September, down from 47.3 in August. Business activity has continued to soften throughout the last quarter, with the latest moderation often linked to lower new orders.

 

Sebastian Burnside, Ulster Bank Chief Economist, commented: 

“Companies in Northern Ireland faced a challenging end to the third quarter of the year as they found it increasingly difficult to secure new orders and therefore scaled back business activity to a greater extent. “Nonetheless, firms are still optimistic that better times lie ahead, and actually saw an improvement in business sentiment in September. This optimistic assessment of the future and associated planning is a key reason why firms continue to hire additional staff despite the falls in current workloads.

 “There was some respite on the inflation front, with the pace of increase in costs slowing and coming in below the UK average. With output prices also rising at a weaker pace, firms may start to see an improvement in customer demand as we head into Q4”.

 

Please see the regional report in full:

Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Growth Tracker (PDF, 881KB)

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