• Job creation recorded for fifth month running 
• Slower falls in output and new orders 
• Inflationary pressures strengthen 

The headline Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s private sector – rose to 48.6 in October from 44.9 in September, signalling a much slower fall in output over the month. Nonetheless, business activity has decreased continuously on a monthly basis since June. 

Muted customer confidence and tight budgets were among the factors behind the reduction in output, according to respondents. 

Renewed increases in output were seen in the manufacturing and services categories, while activity fell in construction and retail.  

Sebastian Burnside, Chief Economist for Ulster Bank, commented: 

“There were signs of recovery in the Northern Ireland private sector in October as rates of decline in output and new orders eased over the month. In fact, both the manufacturing and services sectors posted renewed expansions in business activity. Meanwhile, companies remained optimistic that output will rise over the coming year. 

“This confidence in part helped firms to maintain hiring activities, despite reduced workloads. Employment rose for the fifth month running, with Northern Ireland the leading light across the UK in terms of job creation. 

“The sustainability of job creation was put in doubt by the inflation picture, however, with companies mainly linking higher operating expenses to wage pressures. Both input costs and output prices increased at faster rates during October.” 

Please see the regional report in full:

Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Growth Tracker (PDF, 881KB)