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  • Northern Ireland business sentiment hits 14-month high
  • But new orders dip after growth in November and input costs rise sharply
  • Chief Economist for Ulster Bank, Seb Burnside, said that businesses were “increasingly confident” about 2026 despite “challenges”.
  • Managing Director Corporate, Commercial and Business Banking for Ulster Bank, Mark Crimmins said that NI businesses “remain upbeat” that 2026 will be a “better year”.

 

The latest Ulster Bank Regional Growth Tracker indicated that firms in Northern Ireland are confident in output growth over the course of 2026.

Optimism was recorded in spite of a renewed fall in new orders and further reductions in output and employment. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures remained pronounced.

The headline Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s private sector – rose to 47.9 in December from 46.9 in November, signalling a seventh consecutive monthly fall in output, but one that was slower than that seen in the previous survey period.


Sebastian Burnside, Chief Economist for Ulster Bank, commented:
“While the end of 2025 revealed challenges regarding customer demand and business activity, companies in Northern Ireland were increasingly confident in the future, raising hopes that 2026 will see better growth conditions than the year just gone.
“Employment was a key highlight across the year, with data signalling increasing staffing levels in half of the months of 2025. Should the anticipated improvements in business activity materialise in the new year we are likely to see renewed job creation soon.
“Inflation remains a key headwind as we start the new year, with input costs and output prices rising more quickly in Northern Ireland than elsewhere in the UK. This has the potential to limit growth prospects in 2026.”

 

Please see the regional report in full:

Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Growth Tracker (PDF, 885KB)

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