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Economics

Ulster Bank Regional Growth Tracker report for August 2025

Output falls at sharpest pace since April.

  • Output scaled back amid reduction in new orders
  • Employment continues to rise
  • Inflationary pressures ease, but remain marked 

 

The latest Ulster Bank Regional Growth Tracker signalled a solid reduction in business activity in Northern Ireland's private sector during August, with the pace of decline quickening from July.

New orders were also down, but companies continued to take on extra staff. Inflationary pressures eased but remained elevated. 

The headline Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s private sector – dropped to a four-month low of 47.3 in August, from 49.7 in July.

 

Sebastian Burnside, Ulster Bank Chief Economist, commented: 

“Northern Ireland's private sector struggled to gain momentum in August, as customer caution led to reductions in new orders and business activity. The picture in Northern Ireland was gloomier than across the UK as a whole, where new orders returned to growth.

“Employment remained a bright spot as firms continued to take on extra staff, looking to rebuild capacity and secure a greater range of skills after having faced struggles recruiting staff in previous years.

“Inflationary pressures showed signs of softening. Input costs increased at the slowest pace in 2025 so far, providing some respite for firms. Where costs did rise, wages were again a key feature of company reports.”

 

Please see the regional report in full:

Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Growth Tracker (PDF, 881KB)

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