The domestic beef market has been remarkably robust since our last update, with values for finished cattle persisting at record high levels. Prime cattle prices have been on an upward trajectory since June 2024, despite more cattle being processed during this time compared to 2023.

For the period of January-October 2024, Defra figures show that slaughter of prime cattle in the UK rose 5% above the same period in 2023, reaching 1.78 million head. While all categories of cattle increased in number, most of the uplift came from heifers. The number of cows slaughtered over this period has risen too, up 3% on-the-year to 511,000 head. BCMS data would suggest that in Great Britain, this has been driven by an increase in cows from the beef herd while dairy cow numbers have stayed largely stable.

The market has absorbed greater levels of imported product compared to 2023, mostly from Ireland. From January to September 2024, UK imports of Irish fresh and frozen beef rose by 7% year-on-year to just over 177,000 tonnes. Strength in British cattle prices has meant that Irish beef has become more competitive to import, supporting volumes.

Meanwhile, domestic demand for beef in the UK was robust in 2024. Consumer confidence increased after the COVID pandemic, and while consumers are still mindful of price, growth in wages and slower inflation are squeezing budgets less. Recent AHDB analysis also shows that more broadly, consumers feel strong positivity towards British agriculture, with farming seen as a highly trustworthy profession.

Changes in the breeding herds are affecting youngstock numbers currently coming through the beef supply chain. Growing use of beef and sexed dairy semen have increased the number of beef calves coming from the dairy herd. However, contraction in the suckler herd – leading to reductions in suckler-bred calf registrations – are starting to outweigh this.

Elevated slaughter levels through 2024, coupled with an already smaller cattle herd have contributed to our expectations for potentially notable reductions in cattle supply in 2025. Based on current data, we forecast that 2025 prime cattle slaughter will reduce by around 5% to 1.99 million head.

We expect the downward trend seen in national cow numbers over the last few years to continue into 2025. Indeed, the latest available livestock census figures from 1 June 2024 showed that contraction in the suckler herd drove the total English cow herd down 2% on-the-year to 1.68 million.

While input price inflation eased in 2024, uncertainty remains around general profitability in the beef sector. Cost of production data from our Farmbench database shows that there is a range of profitability across suckler, store and finishing enterprises, with overheads a key area of focus.

Assuming stable beef consumption, lower cattle numbers would point to finished prices being supported. However, these factors would also mean the UK has an increased requirement for imports. Irish cattle data suggests reduced supplies in 2025, as well as in other European nations, which could keep markets supported more widely.

Globally, while production in Brazil and Australia is expected to remain strong, record low cattle inventory in the US is likely to attract increased imports and be a key supporting factor in the global beef market in 2025.

Read more beef market analysis on the AHDB website.

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